Three Scenarios for Venezuela H2 2026: What Happens if Reforms Accelerate, Stall, or Collapse

Rating BB- · Outlook positivo · Outlook stable. Rating BB- · Positive outlook. Three months after Maduro's capture, Venezuela has produced more legal reforms than in the past decade. But oil majors call them inadequate, productivity is the hemisphere's lowest, and PDVSA's debt has no restructuring plan. This analysis evaluates three possible paths for the second half — and what each means for investors.