Three foreign openings define the week before any act in Miraflores. THE HAGUE — Acting President Delcy Rodríguez arrived yesterday in the Netherlands and today leads the Venezuelan delegation at the closing of the Essequibo oral round; the judgment is expected in the second half of the year. MADRID — the Central Bank formalized its return to the global central-bank circuit at the Banco de España's LatAm Economic Forum, the first full institutional return after years of isolation. FLORIDA — George E. Warren becomes the first non-major U.S. trading house to lift Venezuelan crude, with one million barrels scheduled this month and a break of the Vitol-Trafigura duopoly. In parallel, the U.S. Embassy in Caracas quantifies memorandums of understanding above two billion dollars in hydrocarbons and mining, and international reserves post their first positive reversal of the year after the deal cascade closed between April and May. Brent stabilizes near one hundred dollars and Merey trades in an 82-91 band.
↳ The week opens with Caracas litigating in The Hague while simultaneously appearing at central-bank forums in Madrid — Venezuela risk moves through foreign doors rather than domestic announcements.
On Sunday May 10 acting President Delcy Rodríguez landed in the Netherlands at the head of the technical delegation that today, May 11, will defend the Venezuelan Essequibo claim at the closing of the oral round before the International Court of Justice. It is the first direct presidential appearance by Caracas before the tribunal since the boycott begun in 2018. The schedule closes today with the Venezuelan response after Guyana's Friday May 8 reply; judgment is informally projected for August-October 2026 after months of deliberation.
Corte Internacional de Justicia · MPPRE Venezuela ↗Caso 171 CIJ · audiencias 4-11 may 2026 · cierre Venezuela hoy lun 11-may · 1H sesión 15:00 ET · sentencia esperable 2H-2026The acting president's presence in the courtroom completes the procedural behavior of a State party initiated with the 2024 Counter-Memorial and the 2025 Rejoinder, while public doctrine sustains non-recognition of the ruling. That asymmetry preserves the option of tacit acceptance if the ruling is favorable and rejection if not — a two-way scenario the market still does not incorporate into pricing of Guyanese assets or the Venezuelan sovereign curve. For investors with exposure to Stabroek or Venezuelan debt, the case ceases to be binary and opens a 90-120 day monitoring window. Indicator: Foreign Ministry official statement after today's session and the oral line held by the Venezuelan agent on the validity of the 1966 Geneva Agreement.
Between May 7 and 9 the Castillo de Bará, official seat of the Banco de España, hosted the first edition of the LatAm Economic Forum under the theme Capital Flows, Exchange Rates and Geopolitics. The Venezuelan delegation, led by Central Bank of Venezuela President Luis Pérez, participated in four technical panels: tariffs and geoeconomics, monetary policy, capital flows, and commercial impact. It is the first full return of the institution to the global central-bank circuit after the partial sanctions easing formalized by OFAC with General License 57 of April, which enables BCV transactions with U.S. banks.
Banco Central de Venezuela · Banco de España ↗Foro 7-9 may en Castillo de Bará · presidente BCV Luis Pérez · cuatro mesas técnicas · marco licencia GL-57 abril 2026 · primera presencia plena post-aislamientoThe technical presence of the Central Bank of Venezuela at the Banco de España's first LatAm Economic Forum marks the start of phase two of the three-stage plan that the U.S. administration communicated last week: rebuilding channels with international financial institutions before any electoral calendar discussion. For sovereign debt investors it is the most concrete signal that the multi-creditor restructuring scenario — with advisors already authorized by OFAC's general license of May 5 — is moving from paper to the table. Indicator: formal IMF Article IV convocation after the recent designation of Calixto Ortega as Venezuelan governor; and World Bank and IDB agendas in the second quarter.
On Saturday May 9 Bloomberg confirmed that George E. Warren, a U.S. trading firm headquartered in Vero Beach, Florida, scheduled one million barrels of Venezuelan crude to lift this month — the firm's first purchase since Washington eased restrictions after the January capture of former president Nicolás Maduro. Until now post-easing Venezuelan crude had been channeled exclusively through two houses, Vitol Group and Trafigura. The opening formalizes the decision communicated by the Treasury Department in January to widen access to Venezuelan crude to more U.S. traders and refiners.
Bloomberg News · George E. Warren LLC ↗GE Warren · sede Vero Beach, Florida · 1 MMbbl agendado mayo · primera carga post-alivio sanciones · marco GL-41 ampliada + apertura licencias específicasThe entry of a mid-sized U.S. trading house into Venezuelan crude confirms that the U.S. administration is widening the commercial bottleneck beyond the two historical houses. For PDVSA it is strategic — buyer diversification reduces operational compliance cost and concentration in diverted exports; for the Merey market it introduces an additional U.S. end-buyer that narrows the real discount versus the 13-22 dollar structural band. For Venezuelan upstream investors it is a leading indicator: if openness holds in the third quarter, U.S. Gulf Coast refiners enter as stable end demand. Indicator: second cargo from the trader before end-May and appearance of other mid-sized U.S. traders on the manifest.
On Thursday May 7 John Barrett, U.S. chargé d'affaires in Venezuela, spoke at a business event alongside Paula Henao, interim government Hydrocarbons Minister, to quantify investment commitments closed during the most recent diplomatic mission: memorandums of understanding above two billion dollars in hydrocarbons and mining. Barrett emphasized that a stable and transparent regulatory framework is a condition of the three-stage plan of President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Before the event the chargé met with executives from GE Vernova to assess opportunities in the national electric system.
Embajada de los Estados Unidos en Venezuela · Casa Blanca ↗USD 2.000M+ en memorandos · interlocución con ministra Paula Henao · reunión GE Vernova · marco plan tres fases Trump-Rubio · sede Embajada US CaracasThe chargé d'affaires' statement quantifies for the first time as a single aggregate what the deal cascade signed between April 28 and May 1 had already shown piecewise: two billion dollars committed in hydrocarbons and mining under specific licenses. For investors exposed to gold, iron, aluminum, or Venezuelan gas, the figure confirms traction floor and a six-to-twelve-month horizon for conversion into operational output. The meeting with GE Vernova also opens the power-system front, which last week marked a historic peak in demand and is approaching the structural limit of the National Electric System. Indicator: first operational cargo under any of the memorandums signed in May and formal Treasury communication on additional specific licenses for the mining sector.
On Friday May 8 the Central Bank of Venezuela published weekly international reserves as of May 7: $13,463 million total ($13,460 million at the Central Bank and $3 million at the Macroeconomic Stabilization Fund). The figure exceeds the April 29 reading ($13,187 million) by $276 million — the first cumulative rise of the year after the sustained drop of the first four months. The reversal coincides with the entry into force of first payments from the oil and mining deal cascade signed April 28 to May 1.
Banco Central de Venezuela · Reservas Internacionales ↗Reservas 7-may $13.463M · BCV $13.460M + FEM $3M · vs 29-abr $13.187M · +$276M en 8 días hábiles · primer giro positivo año 2026The weekly reserves reversal captures the foreign cash flow the deal cascade closed between April 28 and May 1 began to produce: advance payments, signing rights, and first oil-denominated payments from the new contracts with Eni, Repsol, Hunt Oil, HKN Energy, Crossover, Overseas, and Mercuria. For sovereign debt investors it is the first quantitative confirmation that the base scenario — gradual recovery of foreign flow before an abrupt currency easing — is in motion. The structural baseline the IMF will use as reference in the Article IV convocation is built on these weekly figures. Indicator: Central Bank weekly print on Friday May 15 and behavior of the 2027 sovereign bond, which closed May 6 at 55.53 cents on the dollar, its highest in nine years.